Tuesday, August 13, 2013

Black Swans

I hesitate to promote certain books precisely because I am employed as a professional intellectual and a civil servant but I must acknowledge the most unusual of handbooks for new parents.

When we received this book from our cousin E., I assumed it was the perfect summer read for me and my husband L. because we love to read about economics and logic. We took it to the hospital, naively believing that we would get some quality time to immerse ourselves in non-work-related reading (as my sister-in-law wisely pointed out, such is the hubris of expectant parents). I did manage to enjoy two chapters during a four-day maternity stay, which is very slow but was ultimately quite meaningful.

The book, to cut to the chase, is Nassim Nicholas Taleb's The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (New York: Random House, 2007). I had first read about Taleb's black swan principle in Malcolm Gladwell's What the Dog Saw (Boston: Little Brown, 2009) but I was surprised that Taleb had already published a full anthology of related case studies/loosely but fluidly connected musings about risk, fate, and skepticism about all that I hold dear as a historian (narratives, empirical evidence, and the basic premise of causation). Given my professional specialty, it would be reasonable that I would be fiercely opposed to Taleb's criticisms (and to be honest, it was not endearing that a historian who shall not be named raved about the work). However, to the contrary, in my "new parent state of mind," I am devouring his observations and advice about the inherent and constant unpredictability of life.

Instead of getting more worried about the world, my daughter's future, and the whole point of my work, I am feeling more relaxed about the apparent "nothingness" of everything that occurs between the "black swan events." I am more confident that I can weather all the random challenges of parenthood, that my daughter will be fine despite all of the errors I will commit, and that her life will have meaning no matter how much the world changes for worse (better is a no-brainer).

I am still too sleep-deprived to reach profound conclusions these days (as a recently written conference paper amply exemplifies) but for any new parent readers of this blog looking for some inspiration and solace, I humbly recommend a taste of Taleb.

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